The Chronic Disease Model
The model is specified as a series of disease and complication states, and transition probabilities. For example, in the Michigan Model for Diabetes (shown below), there are three stages of diabetes (corresponding to treatment intensity), three types of complications (nephropathy, retinopathy and neuropathy), and two comorbidities (cardiovascular and cerebrovascular). Each complication and comorbity is specified as a series of states corresponding to severity. In order to complete the definition of the model, it is also necessary to specify the transition probabilities between states that correspond to the arrows shown in the figure. In addition, it is possible to specify costs and health utilities associated with each state.
If you are interested in studying diabetes, you can download the Michigan Model for Diabetes, which is preloaded with estimates of the probabilities of transitions, costs and health utilities; you can then modify the specifications based on your anticipated intervention.
Download the Model:
The Michigan model for diabetes is provided here as a file that is compatible with our modeling software. Downloading the file requires compliance to its license and registration. Please click below on the model version you wish to download. In addition a summary of simulation results is made available for each model below and can be accessed by clicking on the simulation results link in the model description below:
- The Michigan Model for Diabetes 11-May-2009 : This file contains the Michigan model described in the image above and it also contains a population set reconstructed from the subject population described in UKPDS 33 (1998). This mock population set was used for validating the model. This version revises the model that was published by Zhou et al. (2005). Note that this version does not utilize the estimation engine to determine transition probabilities, i.e. transition probabilities are calculated according to specific sources in the literature. These sources are documented within the word document that is archived in the model zip file. This model version produced the following simulation results.
- Zhou H, Isaman DJM, Messinger S, Brown MB, Klein R, Brandle M, Herman WH: A Computer Simulation Model of Diabetes Progression, Quality of Life, and Cost. Diabetes Care 28:2856-2863, 2005. DOI: 10.2337/diacare.26.8.2300
- UKPDS: UK Prospective Diabetes Study UKPDS Group. (1998). Intensive blood-glucose control with sulphonylureas or insulin compared with conventional treatment and risk of complications in patients with type 2 diabetes UKPDS 33. Lancet, 352, 837-853. DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(98)07019-6